Interest rates take a surprising jump towards 7%

It was great while it lasted.

For nearly 10 months interest rates moved up a little, then down a little, but the average cost for most types of mortgages remained below 6.5%.

But rates unexpectedly took off in late May and early June, making home loans more expensive than they've been since, well, this time last year.

Our most recent survey of major lenders taken June 13 found the average:

30-year fixed-rate loan -- the most popular way to pay for a house -- costs 6.84%.

15-year fixed-rate loan costs 6.53%.

30-year jumbo loan (for more than $417,000) costs 7.12%.

That's from a tenth- to quarter-point higher than they were in mid-June 2006. Adjustable rate mortgages are up even more, a quarter- to more than three-tenths of a point. Our survey found a 30-year ARM with an initial rate guaranteed for:

Five years costs 6.67%

One year costs 6.19%.

That means you'd pay $654 a month for every $100,000 you borrowed with the average, 30-year, fixed-rate loan, or $9 a month more than this time last year and a substantial $45 a month more than in mid-March when rates were below 6.2%.

Opting for a five-year ARM would only save you $11 a month, a much smaller difference that we usually see between adjustable and fixed-rate loans. For most buyers that's not enough to risk higher rates -- and higher mortgage payments when they begin resetting. It's why ARMs accounted for only 18.4% of all new mortgages in March, down from 41.9% in January 2006.

What's behind the sudden surge in mortgage rates? Recent reports that wages and other labor costs are growing faster than expected have lenders and investors worried that inflation is getting out of control again.

Although the Consumer Price Index rose 2.5% in 2006, higher energy and food prices have pushed prices up 2.3% during the first six months of the year.

The last time inflation was that high, the Federal Reserve launched a two-year campaign to raise interest rates on all types of consumer loans. (The idea is that pricier loans will cause us to spend less, making it harder for businesses to raise prices on everything from cars to haircuts.)

It's unclear whether those worries will continue to drive mortgages up towards last summer's peak of nearly 7% for 30-year fixed-rate loans.

But this spring, Freddie Mac -- the government-chartered company that buys mortgages from lenders was predicting 30-year fixed rate loans would average 6.2% this year and 6.4% in 2008.

Now it's saying 6.4% this year and 6.8% next year. Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association tells CNNMoney.com that he expects mortgage rates to top out near 7% by the end of the year. Our extensive database of the best mortgage rates from across the country shows a few lenders still offering borrowers with good credit loans of 6.375% with fees of $1,000 or less, but most are now up to 6.5%.

That's certainly not as cheap as four summers ago when 30-year rates bottomed out at 5.28% -- the lowest they've been since Interest.com (and its print predecessors) began its weekly survey of major lenders in 1985.

But it's less than the 7% or 8% we were paying during the mid- to late-'90s, and the double-digit rates we were charged throughout the '80s and early '90s.

The recent surge will be a more serious burden for borrowers with poor credit scores of 620 and lower -- who must pay higher than average interest rates.

Lenders are already making subprime mortgages harder to obtain after an alarming increase in the number of defaults and foreclosures. Applicants who would have had little trouble qualifying just a few months ago are being turned away because they don't make enough money, or have too much debt, to meet stringent new requirements.

Another big and very sudden change is that 100% financing has virtually disappeared for subprime borrowers. Last year about one out of every three subprime borrowers was given enough to cover the full purchase price of their homes. Now you'll need a down payment that covers at least 3%, if not 5% or more, of the price.

The Mortgage Bankers Association has projected 30% fewer subprime loans will be made this year and that was before rates began their surprising climb.

By Mike Sante

Interest.com Managing Editor

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Inside Mortgages Weekly Column

Interest rates take a surprising jump towards 7%